Democrats' odds over the night
Chance Democrats win each chamber
Molly's Take
Live commentary as races change. Click a line to jump to that race.
Map
Click a state to see its races
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The big prize: a blue Congress
House and Senate outcomes together, from the same simulations
Races
| Race | Rating | Democrat | Republican | Expected vote in | Win probability | Status |
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Molly's Election Monitor is proudly pro-Democrat. The cheering takes sides; the numbers don't. Odds come straight from the model and the results feed, unadjusted, so you can trust them on the good nights and the tough ones. Win probabilities blend a pre-election rating, exit-poll estimates (when available) and the counted vote. Chamber odds come from correlated Monte Carlo simulation. Race calls come from the results provider.